House District Hillsborough 12
Greater Manchester · 8 seats · Merrimack
Forecast
4.1 expected Democratic seats of 8
- Held today
- 3 D, 5 R
- On the ballot
- 8 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 1 other for 8 seats
- District party margin
- D+0.8 (90% range R+10.0 to D+11.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 58%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 29%
- Rating (seat share)
- Toss-up
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy Murphy (incumbent) | D | 64% |
| Wendy Thomas (incumbent) | D | 63% |
| Rosemarie Rung (incumbent) | D | 63% |
| Jeanine Notter (incumbent) | R | 57% |
| Bill Boyd (incumbent) | R | 57% |
| Maureen Mooney (incumbent) | R | 57% |
| Julie Miles (incumbent) | R | 57% |
| Adam Presa (incumbent) | R | 56% |
| Marc Nozell | D | 43% |
| Matthew Brown | D | 43% |
| Rebecca Boutin | D | 43% |
| Mary Beth Raven | D | 43% |
| Heather Robitaille | D | 43% |
| Wolfram von Schoen | R | 37% |
| Kevin Southwick | R | 37% |
| Kevin Ballantine | R | 36% |
| Kyle Haines | Independent | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -2.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+0.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 8 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.3 | D+2.8 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+15.1 | R+9.5 | -5.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+7.1 | D+9.3 | -2.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+22.7 | R+15.8 | -7.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+6.4 | D+7.4 | -0.9 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+4.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -1.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 5 of 8 · party margin R+4.1
| R Maureen Mooney (i) | 8,483 | ✓ |
| R Julie Miles | 8,096 | ✓ |
| D Nancy A. Murphy (i) | 7,999 | ✓ |
| R Bill Boyd (i) | 7,949 | ✓ |
| D Rosemarie Rung (i) | 7,945 | ✓ |
| R Adam Presa | 7,918 | ✓ |
| R Jeanine Notter (i) | 7,881 | ✓ |
| D Wendy E.N Thomas (i) | 7,479 | ✓ |
| R John Frechette | 7,384 | |
| R Rebekah Woodman | 7,240 | |
| D Kathryn Stack | 7,070 | |
| R Tracy Coyer | 7,056 | |
| D Rebecca Boutin | 6,977 | |
| D Marc Nozell | 6,769 | |
| D George R. Dieter | 6,454 | |
| D James Flis | 6,447 |
2022 — D 3, R 5 of 8 · party margin R+7.6
| R Healey (i) | 11,335 | ✓ |
| D Rung (i) | 6,245 | ✓ |
| D Murphy | 6,131 | ✓ |
| R Mooney (i) | 6,037 | ✓ |
| R Notter (i) | 5,860 | ✓ |
| D Thomas | 5,843 | ✓ |
| R Boyd (i) | 5,839 | ✓ |
| R McGough | 5,828 | ✓ |
| R Blasek (i) | 5,635 | |
| D Stack | 5,545 | |
| D Locke | 5,522 | |
| R Mayville (i) | 5,456 | |
| D LaRue | 5,341 | |
| D Manning | 5,262 | |
| D Plante | 5,258 |