House District Cheshire 11
Monadnock · 1 seat · Winchester
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+5.8 (90% range R+16.7 to D+5.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 16%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Murphy II (incumbent) | R | 84% |
| Lindseigh Picard | D | 16% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -8.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+5.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.4 | D+2.8 | -14.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+15.4 | R+9.5 | -5.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+3.2 | D+9.3 | -6.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+13.1 | R+15.8 | +2.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+0.1 | D+7.4 | -7.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+11.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -8.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+11.4
| R Denis Vincent Murphy II | 1,110 | ✓ |
| D Natalie Quevedo | 882 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+6.0
| R Nutting | 766 | ✓ |
| D Quevedo | 679 |