House District Belknap 2
Lakes Region · 2 seats · Meredith
Forecast
0.4 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+6.1 (90% range R+17.0 to D+4.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 34%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Coker (incumbent) | R | 86% |
| Scott Wallace | R | 73% |
| Dean Cascadden | D | 20% |
| Seth Wheeler | D | 20% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+6.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | -5.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+19.6 | R+9.5 | -10.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+1.0 | D+9.3 | -10.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+25.7 | R+15.8 | -9.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+1.6 | D+7.4 | -9.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+15.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -11.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+15.4
| R Matt Coker (i) | 2,648 | ✓ |
| R Matthew Lunney | 2,112 | ✓ |
| D Lynn Thomas | 1,913 | |
| D Ben Brookmyer | 1,579 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+0.5
| R Smart | 1,649 | ✓ |
| D Coker | 1,581 | ✓ |
| D Mucci | 1,546 | |
| R Creteau-Miller | 1,445 |