House District Grafton 18 (floterial)
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Alexandria, Bridgewater, Bristol, Canaan, Dorchester, Enfield, Grafton, Groton, Hebron, Orange · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.4 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+1.4 (90% range R+9.4 to D+12.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 45%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Donald McFarlane (incumbent) | R | 55% |
| Marko Kloos | D | 45% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -1.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+1.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+1.7 | D+2.8 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+9.0 | R+9.5 | +0.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+7.8 | D+9.3 | -1.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+17.7 | R+15.8 | -2.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.2 | D+7.4 | -3.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+4.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -1.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+4.4
| R Donald McFarlane | 5,533 | ✓ |
| D Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban | 5,069 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+0.4
| R Sellers | 4,223 | ✓ |
| D Fluehr-Lobban | 4,188 |