House District Hillsborough 42
Concord and Merrimack Valley · 3 seats · Lyndeborough, Mont Vernon, New Boston
Forecast
1.3 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+0.2 (90% range R+10.8 to D+11.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 73%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa Post (incumbent) | R | 63% |
| Gerald Griffin (incumbent) | R | 63% |
| Peter Ryder | D | 44% |
| Teri Harkins | D | 44% |
| Lee Nyquist | D | 44% |
| Rob Lovett | R | 43% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -2.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+0.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+0.4 | D+2.8 | -2.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+13.8 | R+9.5 | -4.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+4.3 | D+9.3 | -5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.2 | R+15.8 | -3.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+1.4 | D+7.4 | -6.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+5.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean +0.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+5.0
| R Keith Ammon (i) | 3,376 | ✓ |
| R Lisa C.M. Post (i) | 3,376 | ✓ |
| R Gerald Griffin (i) | 3,349 | ✓ |
| D Brian Paquette | 3,130 | |
| D Sarah E. Chadzynski | 3,100 | |
| D Andrew Stokinger | 2,902 |
2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+1.0
| R Post (i) | 2,684 | ✓ |
| R Griffin (i) | 2,648 | ✓ |
| R Ammon (i) | 2,639 | ✓ |
| D Roach | 2,636 | |
| D Backus | 2,592 | |
| D Paquette | 2,590 |