House District Hillsborough 34
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Amherst
Forecast
2.9 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+13.5 (90% range D+2.6 to D+24.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 9%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel LeClerc (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Daniel Veilleux (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Stephanie Grund (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Diane Layton | R | 4% |
| Russ Hodgkins | R | 4% |
| Jason Hennessey | R | 4% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+13.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+16.5 | D+2.8 | +13.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+2.7 | R+9.5 | +6.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.0 | D+9.3 | +9.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+8.0 | R+15.8 | +7.7 | 0.1 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+9.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +9.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+9.0
| D Stephanie Grund | 4,209 | ✓ |
| D Daniel Veilleux (i) | 4,025 | ✓ |
| D Daniel LeClerc (i) | 3,979 | ✓ |
| R Russ Hodgkins | 3,484 | |
| R Diane Layton | 3,478 | |
| R Terry Reiber | 3,240 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+12.1
| D Morton | 3,550 | ✓ |
| D Veilleux (i) | 3,418 | ✓ |
| D LeClerc | 3,353 | ✓ |
| R O'Mara | 2,831 | |
| R Coughlin | 2,757 | |
| R Hodgkins | 2,502 |