House District Strafford 4

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 1 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

D+2.0 (90% range R+8.9 to D+12.8)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

30%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

39%

Rating (seat share)

Tilt D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Scott Shepard	D	59%
Ginna Schonwald	D	59%
Kimberly McGlinchey	D	59%
Tanya Rich	R	41%
Kurt Wuelper	R	41%
JoAnne Hack	R	41%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-0.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+2.0

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+1.2	D+2.8	-1.6	0.4
2024 Governor	R+11.0	R+9.5	-1.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+6.1	D+9.3	-3.2	0.2
2022 Governor	R+17.0	R+15.8	-1.2	0.1
2020 President	D+3.8	D+7.4	-3.5	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+0.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +1.9, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin R+0.7

R Len Turcotte	4,349	✓
D Cassandra Levesque	4,288	✓
D Heath Howard	4,199	✓
R Kurt Wuelper	4,183
R Seamus Casey	4,047
D Adam Mulholland	3,906

2022 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin D+1.9

D Levesque (i)	3,362	✓
R Turcotte (i)	3,281	✓
D Howard	3,240	✓
D Towne	3,235
R Wuelper (i)	3,127
R Miller	3,054