House District Strafford 5
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Rochester Ward 1
Forecast
0.6 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican, 1 other for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+0.2 (90% range R+11.1 to D+10.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 59%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jenny Wilson | R | 41% |
| William Fessenden | Democratic Party, Independent | 30% |
| William Fessenden | D | 29% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -3.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+0.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+0.5 | D+2.8 | -2.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+10.5 | R+9.5 | -0.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+2.2 | D+9.3 | -7.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+24.0 | R+15.8 | -8.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+1.7 | D+7.4 | -9.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+4.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean +0.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+4.7
| R Thomas L. Kaczynski Jr. (i) | 1,499 | ✓ |
| D Patricia Turner | 1,365 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+3.2
| R Kaczynski (i) | 1,197 | ✓ |
| D Turner | 1,123 |