House District Hillsborough 32
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · New Ipswich, Temple, Wilton
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+16.9 (90% range R+27.8 to R+6.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 3%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Diane Kelley (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Shane Sirois (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Jim Kofalt (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Richard Swanson | D | 2% |
| Kermit Williams | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+16.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+20.4 | D+2.8 | -23.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+27.4 | R+9.5 | -17.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+13.3 | D+9.3 | -22.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.4 | R+15.8 | -14.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+12.6 | D+7.4 | -20.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+22.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -17.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+22.4
| R Diane Kelley (i) | 3,784 | ✓ |
| R Shane Sirois (i) | 3,689 | ✓ |
| R Jim Kofalt (i) | 3,666 | ✓ |
| D Jennifer Bernet | 2,377 | |
| D Mike Pellerito | 2,349 | |
| D Kermit Williams | 2,344 |
2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+17.4
| R Kofalt | 2,759 | ✓ |
| R Kelley (i) | 2,694 | ✓ |
| R Sirois | 2,643 | ✓ |
| D DeLoria | 1,932 | |
| D Williams | 1,898 | |
| D Swanson | 1,869 | |
| I Page | 437 |