House District Rockingham 1
Seacoast and Strafford · 3 seats · Northwood, Nottingham
Forecast
0.9 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+2.7 (90% range R+13.7 to D+8.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 54%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| James Guzofski (incumbent) | R | 72% |
| Paul Tudor (incumbent) | R | 71% |
| Scott Bryer (incumbent) | R | 71% |
| Donna Danis | D | 29% |
| Hal Rafter | D | 28% |
| Pamela Sanderson | D | 28% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -5.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+2.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.2 | D+2.8 | -7.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+16.0 | R+9.5 | -6.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+1.9 | D+9.3 | -7.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+21.9 | R+15.8 | -6.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+0.4 | D+7.4 | -7.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+5.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+0.8) → lean -2.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+5.7
| R Scott R. Bryer | 3,336 | ✓ |
| R James Guzofski | 3,192 | ✓ |
| R Paul D. Tudor (i) | 3,085 | ✓ |
| D Hal Rafter | 2,956 | |
| D Charlotte Fyfe | 2,822 | |
| D Pamela Sanderson | 2,801 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · uncontested
| D McGuigan | 2,322 | ✓ |
| D Rafter | 2,308 | ✓ |
| D Tappan | 2,218 | ✓ |