House District Coos 6

North Country · 1 seat · Bean's Grant, Bean's Purchase, Chandler's Purchase, Crawford's Purchase, Cutt's Grant, Gorham, Green's Grant, Hadley's Purchase, Low and Burbank's Grant, Martin's Location, Pinkham's Grant, Randolph, Sargent's Purchase, Shelburne, Success, Thompson and Meserve's Purchase

Forecast

0.7 expected Democratic seat of 1

Held today: 0 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
On the ballot: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
District party margin: D+4.7 (90% range R+6.2 to D+15.7)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 72%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 0%
Rating (seat share): Lean D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Richard Umiker	D	72%
Robert Gargano	R	28%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+1.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+4.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+7.8	D+2.8	+5.0	0.4
2024 Governor	R+5.0	R+9.5	+4.6	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+17.3	D+9.3	+7.9	0.2
2022 Governor	R+13.7	R+15.8	+2.1	0.1
2020 President	D+12.4	D+7.4	+5.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+9.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -6.4, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+9.0

R Michael P. Murphy	1,175	✓
D Maggie Baker	981

2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+16.1

D Hatch (i)	998	✓
R Unger	722