House District Rockingham 40 (floterial)
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Hampton, Seabrook · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+3.3 (90% range R+14.3 to D+7.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 24%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Linda McGrath (incumbent) | R | 76% |
| Justin Packard | D | 24% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -6.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+3.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.2 | D+2.8 | -6.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+16.3 | R+9.5 | -6.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+1.6 | D+9.3 | -7.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.8 | R+15.8 | -4.1 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+2.0 | D+7.4 | -5.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -6.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+8.9
| R Linda McGrath | 8,018 | ✓ |
| D John P. Carty | 6,712 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+4.2
| R Janvrin | 6,472 | ✓ |
| D de Vries | 5,945 |