House District Rockingham 19
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Hampton Falls, Kensington
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+4.7 (90% range R+15.6 to D+6.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 19%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Susan Porcelli (incumbent) | R | 81% |
| Wendy Larson | D | 19% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -7.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+4.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+2.0 | D+2.8 | -4.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+19.1 | R+9.5 | -9.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+0.7 | D+9.3 | -10.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+22.1 | R+15.8 | -6.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+1.9 | D+7.4 | -5.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+14.5
| R Susan M. Porcelli (i) | 1,846 | ✓ |
| D Wendy Larson | 1,379 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+6.1
| R Porcelli | 1,413 | ✓ |
| D Pace | 1,251 |