House District Carroll 7 (floterial)
Lakes Region · 1 seat · Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+9.3 (90% range R+20.2 to D+1.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 87%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Dale Fincher | R | 87% |
| Karen Burnett-Kurie | D | 13% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+9.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.4 | D+2.8 | -12.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+22.2 | R+9.5 | -12.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+7.2 | D+9.3 | -16.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+31.2 | R+15.8 | -15.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.4 | D+7.4 | -14.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+13.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -8.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+13.7
| R Glenn Cordelli (i) | 5,095 | ✓ |
| D Bobbi Boudman | 3,871 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+12.5
| R Cordelli (i) | 4,119 | ✓ |
| D Boudman | 3,203 |