Who will control Harrisburg?
Forecast for all 203 State House seats and the 25 State Senate seats on the ballot November 3, 2026. Updated 2026-10-29.
State House
99%
chance Democrats control the State House
D 98.9% · R 1.1%
Expected Democratic seats: 111.8 of 203 (90% range 105–119). Majority is 102.
State Senate
43%
chance Republicans control the State Senate
D 28.8% · R 42.6% · no majority 28.6%
Expected Democratic seats: 24.6 of 50 (90% range 22–27). Majority is 26. Includes 10 D and 15 R seats not up this year.
Statewide environment
The model's estimate of the statewide two-party vote in a generic legislative race is D+6.6, a swing of +8.4 points toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential result (R+1.8). Polls make up 91% of this estimate; the rest is a structural midterm prior. How this was built →
Maps
Safe R
Safe D · grey = not up in 2026
Hover or tap a district for details; click to open its page.
Most likely to flip
| Seat | Held by | P(flip) | P(Dem) |
|---|---|---|---|
| House District 160 | R Craig Williams | 92% | 92% |
| House District 12 | D Brandon Dukes | 87% | 13% |
| House District 137 | R Joe Emrick | 84% | 84% |
| House District 88 | R Sheryl M. Delozier | 83% | 83% |
| House District 18 | R Kathleen C. Tomlinson | 78% | 78% |
| House District 44 | R Valerie S. Gaydos | 73% | 73% |
| House District 142 | R Joe Hogan | 72% | 72% |
| Senate District 6 | R Frank A. Farry | 65% | 65% |
| House District 187 | R Gary W. Day | 64% | 64% |
| Senate District 36 | D James Andrew Malone | 64% | 36% |
| Senate District 24 | R Tracy Pennycuick | 63% | 63% |
| House District 143 | R Shelby Labs | 62% | 62% |
| House District 41 | R Brett R. Miller | 62% | 62% |
| Senate District 16 | R Jarrett Coleman | 61% | 61% |
| House District 131 | R Milou Mackenzie | 57% | 57% |
Closest races
| Seat | Candidates | Margin | P(Dem) |
|---|---|---|---|
| House District 13 | Madelyn G Alvarino (D) v. John Adda Lawrence (R) | R+0.6 | 47% |
| House District 131 | Meriam H Sabih (D) v. V Milou Mackenzie (R) | D+1.1 | 57% |
| House District 72 | Frank Burns (D) v. Philip D Rice (R) | D+1.7 | 59% |
| House District 28 | Jeremy Ferderber (D) v. Jeremy K Shaffer (R) | R+1.9 | 40% |
| Senate District 40 | Brian A Wrightson (D) v. Rosemary Maula Brown (R) | R+1.7 | 40% |
| House District 120 | Fern Leard (D) v. Brenda M Pugh (R) | R+2.1 | 39% |
| Senate District 16 | Mark E Pinsley (D) v. Jarrett Charles Coleman (R) | D+1.7 | 61% |
| House District 41 | Bradford T Chambers (D) v. Brett R Miller (R) | D+2.1 | 62% |
| House District 143 | Timothy J Hayes (D) v. Shelby E Labs (R) | D+2.1 | 62% |
| Senate District 24 | Christopher David Thomas (D) v. Tracy E Pennycuick (R) | D+2.3 | 63% |
| Senate District 36 | James Andrew Malone (D) v. Thomas Matthew Jones (R) | R+2.3 | 36% |
| House District 187 | Rachel Marie Guynn-cuevas (D) v. Gary W Day (R) | D+2.5 | 64% |
| Senate District 6 | Eileen T Hartnett Albillar (D) v. Frank Farry (R) | D+2.4 | 65% |
| House District 147 | Margaret Burke (D) v. Donna Marie Scheuren (R) | R+3.1 | 33% |
| House District 40 | Jonathan C Lloyd (D) v. Natalie Nicole Stuck (R) | R+4.3 | 28% |
Seats by rating
State House
| Rating | Seats | Districts |
|---|---|---|
| Safe D | 100 | 1, 2, 3, 10, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 45, 49, 53, 54, 61, 70, 74, 77, 82, 95, 96, 103, 104, 105, 112, 113, 114, 115, 118, 126, 127, 129, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 140, 141, 144, 146, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 172, 173, 174, 175, 177, 179, 180, 181, 182, 184, 185, 186, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 194, 195, 197, 198, 200, 201, 202, 203 |
| Likely D | 4 | 88, 121, 137, 160 |
| Lean D | 3 | 18, 44, 142 |
| Tilt D | 5 | 41, 72, 131, 143, 187 |
| Toss-up | 1 | 13 |
| Tilt R | 2 | 28, 120 |
| Lean R | 2 | 40, 147 |
| Likely R | 15 | 7, 12, 39, 46, 47, 87, 97, 106, 119, 128, 145, 170, 176, 178, 199 |
| Safe R | 71 | 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 17, 37, 43, 48, 50, 51, 52, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 71, 73, 75, 76, 78, 79, 80, 81, 83, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 116, 117, 122, 123, 124, 125, 130, 138, 139, 169, 171, 183, 193, 196 |