House District 72
Central PA · currently held by D (Frank Burns)
Forecast
59%
chance Frank Burns (D) wins
- Democrat
- Frank Burns
- Republican
- Philip D Rice
- Rating
- Tilt D
- Expected margin
- D+1.7 (90% range R+10.8 to D+14.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 41.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 2.7% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -17.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+10.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +6.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.6 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+0.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.5 |
| Final expected margin | D+1.7 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+31.6 | R+1.8 | -29.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+7.6 | D+15.0 | -22.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+21.8 | D+5.0 | -26.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+29.3 | D+1.1 | -30.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+2.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +8.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Frank Burns (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $97,341 · R $2,416
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Frank Burns | Amy Marie Bradley | D+2.8 |
| 2022 | Frank Burns | H Renae Billow | D+9.1 |
| 2020 | Frank Burns | Howard D. Terndrup | D+5.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Lean D (lean d) | 78% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.5 points.