PA Legislature 2026

The statewide environment

How polls of the governor's race, the generic ballot and Shapiro's approval become a single statewide swing applied to every district.

2024 presidential two-party margin in PA (anchor)R+1.8
Structural prior: midterm swing against the president's party (R), 4.0 pts, worth 1500 "effective respondents"D+2.2
National generic congressional ballot: 114 polls, weighted average D+7.9 → implied generic margin D+5.8 (source weight 0.25)
national generic +7.9 plus PA lean -0.2 = +7.7; 80% pass-through from anchor		D+5.8
Pennsylvania voters' U.S. House preference: 2 polls, weighted average D+14.7 → implied generic margin D+11.4 (source weight 0.3)
PA voters' U.S. House preference +14.7; 80% pass-through from the 2024 anchor		D+11.4
Pennsylvania governor (Shapiro v. Garrity): 11 polls, weighted average D+23.1 → implied generic margin D+5.7 (source weight 0.25)
gov margin +23.1 minus Shapiro personal vote 10 = +13.1; moved 50% of the way from the 2024 anchor		D+5.7
Shapiro job approval: 2 polls, weighted average D+31.3 → implied generic margin D+0.7 (source weight 0.1)
net approval +31.3 x 0.15 + -4.0		D+0.7
Combined poll estimate (effective n ≈ 15423)D+7.1
Blend: polls 91%, prior 9%D+6.6
Statewide generic legislative marginD+6.6
Swing applied to every district vs 2024+8.4

Simulated range of the statewide margin on Election Day: 90% between D+1.2 and D+12.1 (SD 3.5 pts, Student-t tails).

National generic congressional ballot

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-10-24 – 2026-10-26LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.02.6%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261263LV50.041.0D+9.0D+9.03.8%link
NPR / PBS / Marist University2026-10-19 – 2026-10-26LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.02.6%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-22 – 2026-10-261164LV53.044.0D+9.0D+9.03.7%link
Cygnal R2026-10-23 – 2026-10-241500LV52.043.0D+9.0D+11.01.9%link
Echelon InsightsNetChoice2026-10-16 – 2026-10-233644LV51.046.0D+5.0D+5.05.6%link
CBS / YouGov2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231749LV53.045.0D+8.0D+8.03.9%link
Prolific2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22713LV53.042.0D+11.0D+11.02.4%link
Clarity Campaign Labs2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211016LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.02.7%link
ActiVote2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.02.7%link
The Rainey Center2026-10-14 – 2026-10-201279RV52.044.0D+8.0D+7.02.9%link
Morning ConsultDeseret News & the Hinckley Institute of Politics2026-10-13 – 2026-10-202050RV48.042.0D+6.0D+5.03.6%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201594LV53.044.0D+9.0D+9.03.2%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201179LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.01.4%link
The New York Times / Siena University2026-10-12 – 2026-10-193494LV52.041.0D+11.0D+11.04.5%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-16 – 2026-10-191279RV47.035.0D+12.0D+11.01.4%link
CNN /SSRS2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181206RV49.039.0D+10.0D+9.02.5%link
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesCNBC2026-10-14 – 2026-10-181000RV52.045.0D+7.0D+6.02.3%link
RMG ResearchNapolitan News Service2026-10-13 – 2026-10-142000RV51.043.0D+8.0D+7.02.7%link
ActiVote2026-10-04 – 2026-10-141000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.00.9%link
The Washington Post / ABC News / Ipsos2026-10-09 – 2026-10-132032LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.02.6%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-10 – 2026-10-121403RV46.039.0D+7.0D+6.00.5%link
SurveyMonkeyNBC News Decision Desk2026-09-28 – 2026-10-1217649RV55.045.0D+10.0D+9.07.2%link
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News2026-10-09 – 2026-10-121202RV54.045.0D+9.0D+8.01.9%link
Morning Consult2026-10-05 – 2026-10-1117654LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.03.4%link
Cygnal R2026-10-07 – 2026-10-101500LV51.042.0D+9.0D+11.00.5%link
TrueDotNewsNation and Decision Desk HQ2026-10-05 – 2026-10-09974LV49.042.0D+7.0D+7.01.5%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-02 – 2026-10-052201LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.00.9%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-30 – 2026-10-053526RV44.037.0D+7.0D+6.00.6%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-051173LV51.040.0D+11.0D+11.00.2%link
Morning Consult2026-09-28 – 2026-10-0417659LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.01.2%link
University of Massachusetts Lowell / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-041000LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.01.1%link
Pew Research Center2026-09-28 – 2026-10-043917RV44.036.0D+8.0D+7.02.3%link
Cygnal R2026-10-01 – 2026-10-021500LV52.043.0D+9.0D+11.00.2%link
ActiVote2026-09-22 – 2026-10-021000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.3%link
CBS News / YouGov2026-09-30 – 2026-10-021572LV54.045.0D+9.0D+9.01.3%link
I&I/ TIPP Insights R2026-09-29 – 2026-10-011328RV46.042.0D+4.0D+5.00.6%link
Centerline Research & Strategy2026-09-26 – 2026-10-01930LV50.042.0D+8.0D+8.01.0%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-24 – 2026-09-301794LV47.044.0D+3.0D+5.00.6%link
AlphaROCThe Independent Center2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281000A43.037.0D+6.0D+4.50.9%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281003LV53.038.0D+15.0D+15.00.1%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-09-26 – 2026-09-28LV51.049.0D+2.0D+2.00.3%link
Quinnipiac University2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271032RV51.039.0D+12.0D+11.00.8%link
Morning Consult2026-09-21 – 2026-09-2718786LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.4%link
Angus Reid Global2026-09-19 – 2026-09-25919RV56.040.0D+16.0D+15.00.7%link
GBAOThird Way D2026-09-17 – 2026-09-242000RV50.041.0D+9.0D+6.00.5%link
Change Research D2026-09-15 – 2026-09-242021RV46.039.0D+7.0D+4.00.5%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-17 – 2026-09-231819LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.2%link
Emerson College2026-09-21 – 2026-09-221000LV53.042.0D+11.0D+11.00.6%link
The Argument /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22LV55.045.0D+10.0D+10.00.5%link
McLaughlin & Associates R2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221000LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.3%link
Impact Research/ National Research Inc.The Wall Street Journal2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211500RV50.042.0D+8.0D+7.00.7%link
Echelon Insights2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211002LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.3%link
Strength In Numbers /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-21LV52.042.0D+10.0D+10.00.5%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21975LV52.038.0D+14.0D+14.00.0%link
ActiVote2026-09-11 – 2026-09-211000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.00.1%link
KFF2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211013RV45.035.0D+10.0D+9.00.6%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20979RV43.035.0D+8.0D+7.00.1%link
Morning Consult2026-09-18 – 2026-09-2018336LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.2%link
Quantus Insights R2026-09-15 – 2026-09-181389LV50.042.0D+8.0D+10.00.3%link
John Zogby Strategies2026-09-15 – 2026-09-171007LV48.042.0D+6.0D+6.00.5%link
CNN /SSRS2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17867RV49.041.0D+8.0D+7.00.2%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-10 – 2026-09-161746LV49.041.0D+8.0D+10.00.1%link
Clarity Campaign Labs D2026-09-11 – 2026-09-161046LV50.043.0D+7.0D+5.00.1%link
Big Data Poll R2026-09-13 – 2026-09-152633LV48.037.0D+11.0D+13.00.4%link
Emerson College / RealClear Opinion ResearchUnited America Institute2026-09-12 – 2026-09-151500RV37.029.0D+8.0D+7.00.5%link
Hart Research Associates/ Public Opinion StrategiesNBC News2026-09-11 – 2026-09-151000RV50.045.0D+5.0D+4.00.4%link
Morning ConsultDeseret News & the Hinckley Institute of Politics2026-09-10 – 2026-09-152102RV46.043.0D+3.0D+2.00.0%link
RMG ResearchNapolitan News Service2026-09-08 – 2026-09-152000RV51.043.0D+8.0D+7.00.3%link
Marist UniversityNPR and PBS News2026-09-14 – 2026-09-151280RV53.041.0D+12.0D+11.00.5%link
The Rainey Center2026-09-10 – 2026-09-141004RV48.042.0D+6.0D+5.00.2%link
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141211RV51.044.0D+7.0D+6.00.2%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141051LV51.039.0D+12.0D+12.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14896RV44.037.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
New York Times / Siena College2026-09-08 – 2026-09-131503LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.5%link
Morning Consult2026-09-07 – 2026-09-13LV49.043.0D+6.0D+6.00.0%link
CBS News / YouGov2026-09-08 – 2026-09-111750LV54.046.0D+8.0D+8.00.2%link
ActiVote2026-08-31 – 2026-09-101000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.0%link
Marquette University Law School2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09581LV54.041.0D+13.0D+13.00.3%link
Catawba College / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-09779LV49.038.0D+11.0D+11.00.3%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-03 – 2026-09-091905LV47.042.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-081015LV49.038.0D+11.0D+11.00.0%link
Public Religion Research InstituteAndrew Carnegie Foundation2026-08-20 – 2026-09-07RV43.036.0D+7.0D+6.00.2%link
Morning Consult2026-09-04 – 2026-09-062203RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link
Quinnipiac University2026-09-03 – 2026-09-06970RV49.038.0D+11.0D+10.00.1%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021837LV52.045.0D+7.0D+7.00.1%link
Cygnal R2026-09-01 – 2026-09-021500LV51.042.0D+9.0D+11.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-28 – 2026-08-31924RV43.038.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-08-28 – 2026-08-30LV49.051.0R+2.0R+2.00.0%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-08-23 – 2026-08-302231LV41.036.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
UMass Amherst / YouGov2026-08-21 – 2026-08-261000A42.034.0D+8.0D+6.50.2%link
ActiVote2026-08-10 – 2026-08-241000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.0%link
McLaughlin & Associates R2026-08-14 – 2026-08-241000LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
Emerson College2026-08-16 – 2026-08-171000LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.1%link
Echelon Insights2026-08-13 – 2026-08-171002LV50.045.0D+5.0D+5.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171449RV46.039.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17876RV41.036.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
The Bullfinch Group2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171000RV42.037.0D+5.0D+4.00.1%link
Morning Consult / Cato Institute2026-08-13 – 2026-08-164150RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.2%link
Noble Predictive Insights/ The Center Square2026-08-12 – 2026-08-162533RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.2%link
Morning Consult2026-08-10 – 2026-08-1629719RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link
Wave Polling /Verasight2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111591RV48.040.0D+8.0D+7.00.1%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111857LV51.045.0D+6.0D+6.00.0%link
Angus Reid Global2026-08-08 – 2026-08-111525A45.036.0D+9.0D+7.50.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101419RV46.040.0D+6.0D+5.00.0%link
AlphaROCThe Independent Center2026-08-08 – 2026-08-101000A41.037.0D+4.0D+2.50.0%link
Morning Consult2026-08-03 – 2026-08-0929719RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
ActiVote2026-07-29 – 2026-08-081000LV52.547.5D+5.0D+5.00.0%link
Cygnal R2026-08-06 – 2026-08-071500LV49.042.0D+7.0D+9.00.0%link
John Zogby Strategies2026-08-04 – 2026-08-05921LV51.040.0D+11.0D+11.00.0%link
Quantus Insights R2026-08-03 – 2026-08-041048LV49.043.0D+6.0D+8.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-07-31 – 2026-08-031472RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-07-29 – 2026-08-033542RV42.037.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
Morning Consult2026-07-27 – 2026-08-0224000RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link

Pennsylvania voters' U.S. House preference

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
Quinnipiac University2026-10-01 – 2026-10-051159LV54.039.0D+15.0D+15.092.7%link
Franklin & Marshall College2026-08-17 – 2026-08-23501RV48.036.0D+12.0D+11.07.3%link

Pennsylvania governor (Shapiro v. Garrity)

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
ActiVote2026-10-01 – 2026-10-21400LV61.538.5D+23.0D+23.021.0%link
Franklin & Marshall College2026-10-07 – 2026-10-18808RV54.033.0D+21.0D+20.025.8%link
PennLive/Bravo Group (Morning Scrapple)Bravo Group2026-10-05 – 2026-10-11628RV58.028.0D+30.0D+29.016.1%link
Quinnipiac University2026-10-01 – 2026-10-051159LV59.034.0D+25.0D+25.016.2%link
Z to A ResearchRust Belt Rising D2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01630LV53.034.0D+19.0D+17.04.9%link
Susquehanna Polling & Research R2026-09-22 – 2026-09-30700LV52.031.0D+21.0D+23.04.9%link
The New York Times / The Philadelphia Inquirer / Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22615LV58.038.0D+20.0D+20.06.2%link
PennLive/Bravo Group (Morning Scrapple)Bravo Group2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22624RV55.028.0D+27.0D+26.03.1%link
Franklin & Marshall College2026-08-17 – 2026-08-23501RV50.025.0D+25.0D+24.00.6%link
PennLive/Bravo Group (Morning Scrapple)Bravo Group2026-08-18 – 2026-08-22711RV56.025.0D+31.0D+30.00.4%link
The New York Times / The Philadelphia Inquirer / Siena University2026-08-17 – 2026-08-21760LV55.039.0D+16.0D+16.00.7%link

Shapiro job approval

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
Quinnipiac University2026-10-01 – 2026-10-051159LV63.030.0D+33.0D+33.072.3%link
The New York Times / The Philadelphia Inquirer / Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22615LV60.033.0D+27.0D+27.027.7%link