Tipping-point seats
In each simulation we sort the seats from most to least Democratic and find the one that delivers the majority. The share of simulations in which a seat plays that role is its tipping-point probability.
State House
Majority: 102 of 203.
| Seat | Candidates | Tipping pt | P(Dem) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House District 160 | Elizabeth Rhein Moro v. Wendell Craig Williams | 5.6% | 92% | D+10.8 |
| House District 137 | Jeffrey M Warren v. Joseph T Emrick | 5.5% | 84% | D+7.7 |
| House District 144 | Brian Munroe v. Michael J Murphy | 5.4% | 97% | D+13.5 |
| House District 88 | Sara M Agerton v. Jeffrey H Clark | 5.2% | 83% | D+7.3 |
| House District 121 | Jessica Mcclay v. Michael D Harostock III | 5.2% | 94% | D+12.4 |
| House District 18 | Bryan F Allen Jr v. Kathleen C Tomlinson | 4.8% | 78% | D+5.5 |
| House District 44 | Hadley B Haas v. Valerie S Gaydos | 4.3% | 73% | D+4.8 |
| House District 142 | Kristin Egan v. Joseph F Hogan IV | 3.9% | 72% | D+4.0 |
| House District 172 | Sean Michael Dougherty v. — | 3.8% | 100% | D+15.9 |
| House District 16 | Robert F Matzie v. John C Costanza | 3.6% | 98% | D+16.3 |
| House District 187 | Rachel Marie Guynn-cuevas v. Gary W Day | 3.1% | 64% | D+2.5 |
| House District 112 | Kyle James Mullins v. Joseph J Sabia Jr | 3.0% | 99% | D+17.2 |
| House District 41 | Bradford T Chambers v. Brett R Miller | 2.8% | 62% | D+2.1 |
| House District 143 | Timothy J Hayes v. Shelby E Labs | 2.7% | 62% | D+2.1 |
| House District 72 | Frank Burns v. Philip D Rice | 2.7% | 59% | D+1.7 |
| House District 118 | James L Haddock v. John F Lombardo | 2.6% | 99% | D+18.1 |
| House District 131 | Meriam H Sabih v. V Milou Mackenzie | 2.4% | 57% | D+1.1 |
| House District 174 | Ed Neilson v. — | 2.3% | 100% | D+18.8 |
| House District 114 | Bridget Malloy Kosierowski v. Logan Robert Lombardo | 2.0% | 99% | D+19.5 |
| House District 45 | Brittany Marie Bloam v. James M Julius | 1.8% | 99% | D+20.1 |
| House District 113 | Kyle T Donahue v. Lucas O'brien | 1.7% | 100% | D+20.2 |
| House District 173 | Patrick Gallagher v. William J Griffin Jr | 1.7% | 100% | D+20.5 |
| House District 82 | Paul R Takac Jr v. Kirsten Lee Mcternan | 1.7% | 100% | D+20.3 |
| House District 140 | James George Prokopiak v. Michael J Gettis | 1.6% | 99% | D+20.5 |
| House District 13 | Madelyn G Alvarino v. John Adda Lawrence | 1.6% | 47% | R+0.6 |
State Senate
Majority: 26 of 50 (10 D / 15 R not up; Democrats need 16 of 25 seats up, Republicans need 11).
| Seat | Candidates | Tipping pt | P(Dem) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate District 36 | James Andrew Malone v. Thomas Matthew Jones | 20.6% | 36% | R+2.3 |
| Senate District 40 | Brian A Wrightson v. Rosemary Maula Brown | 19.5% | 40% | R+1.7 |
| Senate District 16 | Mark E Pinsley v. Jarrett Charles Coleman | 15.6% | 61% | D+1.7 |
| Senate District 46 | Jodi Marie Borello (Independent) v. Camera Bartolotta | 14.7% | 21% | R+5.4 |
| Senate District 6 | Eileen T Hartnett Albillar v. Frank Farry | 14.1% | 65% | D+2.4 |
| Senate District 24 | Christopher David Thomas v. Tracy E Pennycuick | 13.8% | 63% | D+2.3 |
| Senate District 14 | Nicholas Miller v. Omy Juriel Maldonado | 0.9% | 97% | D+14.1 |
| Senate District 34 | Nathan Wood v. William Gregory Rothman | 0.3% | 0% | R+20.5 |
| Senate District 38 | Lindsey M Williams v. Thomas West | 0.2% | 99% | D+19.4 |
| Senate District 44 | Katie J Muth v. Melissa C Dicranian | 0.1% | 99% | D+19.2 |
| Senate District 20 | Jaclyn Estelle Baker v. Elisabeth J Baker | 0.0% | 0% | R+25.2 |
| Senate District 10 | Steven J Santarsiero v. Gregory J Bankos Jr | 0.0% | 100% | D+22.5 |
| Senate District 22 | Martin B Flynn v. Sharon Soltis | 0.0% | 100% | D+23.5 |
| Senate District 50 | Sue Ann Mulvey v. Michele Brooks | 0.0% | 0% | R+27.9 |
| Senate District 28 | Thomas S Johnson v. Kristin Lee Phillips-hill | 0.0% | 0% | R+27.5 |
| Senate District 18 | Lisa M Boscola v. Scott Janney | 0.0% | 100% | D+23.1 |
| Senate District 48 | Wayne R Moyer Jr v. Christopher Gebhard | 0.0% | 0% | R+31.0 |
| Senate District 26 | Timothy Patrick Kearney v. Gail R Scott | 0.0% | 100% | D+26.7 |
| Senate District 2 | Christine M Tartaglione v. — | 0.0% | 99% | D+53.9 |
| Senate District 4 | Arthur Haywood v. Todd Johnson | 0.0% | 100% | D+56.7 |
| Senate District 8 | Anthony Hardy Williams v. — | 0.0% | 99% | D+77.5 |
| Senate District 12 | Maria Collett v. Robert F Costello III | 0.0% | 100% | D+28.5 |
| Senate District 30 | Sean C Steeg v. Judith F Ward | 0.0% | 0% | R+40.0 |
| Senate District 32 | Jacob H Cecil v. Patrick J Stefano | 0.0% | 0% | R+39.0 |
| Senate District 42 | Wayne D Fontana v. — | 0.0% | 99% | D+45.6 |
Seats ordered by expected margin
The "median seat" view: where the majority line falls in the ordered list of seats.