House District 187

Forecast

Democrat

Rachel Marie Guynn-cuevas

Republican

Gary W Day

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+2.5 (90% range R+9.0 to D+14.0)

Chance of flipping

64.1%

Tipping-point chance

3.1% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-5.8
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+0.9
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+3.0
= Fundamentals margin	D+1.1
District polls (2, average D+4.6, weight 33%)	+1.2
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.2
Final expected margin	D+2.5

District-level error SD 5.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.1 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+9.5	R+1.8	-7.7	0.45
2022 Governor	D+6.6	D+15.0	-8.5	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+3.8	D+5.0	-8.8	0.2
2020 President	R+8.3	D+1.1	-9.4	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+10.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +0.3, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Gary W. Day (R) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Stefanie Rafes	Gary W Day	R+10.7
2022	nan	Ryan Mackenzie	uncontested
2020	Michael E Blichar Jr	Gary Day	R+23.1