Senate District 48
Central PA · currently held by R (Chris Gebhard)
Forecast
100%
chance Christopher Gebhard (R) wins
- Democrat
- Wayne R Moyer Jr
- Republican
- Christopher Gebhard
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+31.0 (90% range R+43.7 to R+18.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -33.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+27.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.5 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -4.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+34.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +3.2 |
| Final expected margin | R+31.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.2 | R+1.8 | -32.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+17.4 | D+15.0 | -32.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+29.2 | D+5.0 | -34.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+33.8 | D+1.1 | -34.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+36.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -34.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Chris Gebhard (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $1,900 · R $1,217,936
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Calvin Craig Clements | Christopher M Gebhard | R+36.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +3.2 points.