Senate District 46
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Camera Bartolotta)
Forecast
79%
chance Camera Bartolotta wins
- Independent (no Democrat filed)
- Jodi Marie Borello (Independent)
- Republican
- Camera Bartolotta
- Others
- Jodi Marie Borello (Independent Party)
- Rating
- Lean R
- Expected margin
- R+5.4 (90% range R+16.3 to D+5.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 20.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 14.7% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -24.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+17.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + independent_penalty | -6.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+26.7 |
| District polls (1, average even, weight 80%) | +21.3 |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+5.4 |
No Democrat is on the ballot; Jodi Marie Borello (independent) is modelled as the challenger: the margin starts from what a generic Democrat would get here, minus a 6.0-point penalty for running without a party, then the district poll enters directly. An independent win counts for neither party's majority.
District-level error SD 5.2 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.6 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+28.7 | R+1.8 | -26.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.0 | D+15.0 | -20.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+16.4 | D+5.0 | -21.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+26.2 | D+1.1 | -27.4 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Camera Bartolotta (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | nan | Camera Bartolotta | uncontested |
District polls
| Pollster | Sponsor | End | n | Margin | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | none (State Navigate polling fund) | 2026-10-05 | 1201 | even | even | 100% |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Tilt D (tilt d) | 23% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.