Senate District 40

Forecast

Democrat

Brian A Wrightson

Republican

Rosemary Maula Brown

Rating

Tilt R

Expected margin

R+1.7 (90% range R+12.7 to D+9.3)

Chance of flipping

39.6%

Tipping-point chance

19.5% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-5.6
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+1.0
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-1.4
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-0.4
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	+1.5
= Fundamentals margin	R+2.1
District polls (1, average R+3.0, weight 53%)	-0.5
External ratings prior (weight 33%)	+0.8
Final expected margin	R+1.8

District-level error SD 5.3 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+6.5	R+1.8	-4.8	0.45
2022 Governor	D+8.3	D+15.0	-6.8	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+1.9	D+5.0	-3.2	0.2
2020 President	R+0.6	D+1.1	-1.7	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): R+10.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -8.4, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Rosemary M. Brown (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $290,217 · R $524,381

Target lists

DLCC, PA_Senate_Dems, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Jennifer Anne Shukaitis	Rosemary Maula Brown	R+10.5