Senate District 50
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Michele Brooks)
Forecast
100%
chance Michele Brooks (R) wins
- Democrat
- Sue Ann Mulvey
- Republican
- Michele Brooks
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.9 (90% range R+40.5 to R+15.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -34.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+27.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -3.1 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | +0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+32.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 33%) | +4.9 |
| Final expected margin | R+28.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.0 | R+1.8 | -32.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.8 | D+15.0 | -31.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+25.0 | D+5.0 | -30.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+30.6 | D+1.1 | -31.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+42.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -40.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Michele Brooks (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Rianna S Czech | Michele Brooks | R+42.7 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
| ballotpedia | Toss-up (Battleground district) | 50% | 0.08 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +4.9 points.