House District 41

Forecast

Democrat

Bradford T Chambers

Republican

Brett R Miller

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+2.1 (90% range R+9.3 to D+13.5)

Chance of flipping

61.9%

Tipping-point chance

2.8% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-2.9
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+3.8
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+1.3
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-0.8
= Fundamentals margin	D+1.5
District polls (2, average D+2.7, weight 37%)	+0.4
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.1
Final expected margin	D+2.0

District-level error SD 5.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.0 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+5.0	R+1.8	-3.2	0.45
2022 Governor	D+13.5	D+15.0	-1.6	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+1.6	D+5.0	-6.6	0.2
2020 President	R+4.7	D+1.1	-5.8	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+11.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -0.3, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Brett R. Miller (R) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Target lists

DLCC

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Bradford Terrell Chambers	Brett R Miller	R+11.3
2022	nan	Brett R Miller	R+100.0
2020	Michele Wherley	Brett R Miller	R+15.7