Senate District 28
Central PA · currently held by R (Kristin Phillips-Hill)
Forecast
100%
chance Kristin Lee Phillips-hill (R) wins
- Democrat
- Thomas S Johnson
- Republican
- Kristin Lee Phillips-hill
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.5 (90% range R+40.0 to R+14.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -29.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+22.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.2 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -3.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+30.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +2.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+29.2 | R+1.8 | -27.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+11.9 | D+15.0 | -26.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+24.4 | D+5.0 | -29.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+29.5 | D+1.1 | -30.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+33.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -31.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Kristin Phillips-Hill (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $2,551 · R $324,725
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Judith A Mccormick Higgins | Kristin Lee Phillips-Hill | R+33.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +2.6 points.