House District 172
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Sean Dougherty) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Sean Michael Dougherty (D) wins
- Democrat
- Sean Michael Dougherty
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+15.9 (90% range D+3.1 to D+28.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 3.8% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +5.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+12.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+15.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+15.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+0.9 | R+1.8 | +0.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+25.6 | D+15.0 | +10.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+11.1 | D+5.0 | +6.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+7.1 | D+1.1 | +6.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+2.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +7.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Sean Dougherty (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Sean Michael Dougherty | Aizaz Gill | D+2.0 |
| 2022 | Kevin J. Boyle | Al Taubenberger | D+14.0 |
| 2020 | Kevin J Boyle | Haroon Bashir | D+22.4 |