House District 118
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Jim Haddock)
Forecast
99%
chance James L Haddock (D) wins
- Democrat
- James L Haddock
- Republican
- John F Lombardo
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+18.1 (90% range D+5.6 to D+30.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 2.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +3.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+9.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +6.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.1 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+18.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+18.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+7.5 | R+1.8 | -5.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+15.1 | D+15.0 | +0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+5.1 | D+5.0 | +0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+2.8 | D+1.1 | -3.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+12.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +17.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jim Haddock (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $165,571 · R $33,027
- Target lists
- DLCC, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | James L Haddock | Mckayla Kathio | D+12.5 |
| 2022 | James L Haddock | James E May Iv | D+4.7 |
| 2020 | Michael B Carroll | Andrew Michael Holter | D+7.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.