House District 160

Forecast

Democrat

Elizabeth Rhein Moro

Republican

Wendell Craig Williams

Rating

Likely D

Expected margin

D+10.8 (90% range R+1.8 to D+23.4)

Chance of flipping

92.3%

Tipping-point chance

5.6% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+5.7
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+12.3
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+0.9
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+1.4
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-1.5
= Fundamentals margin	D+10.3
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.5
Final expected margin	D+10.8

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+5.4	R+1.8	+7.2	0.45
2022 Governor	D+18.5	D+15.0	+3.4	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+5.8	D+5.0	+0.8	0.2
2020 President	D+6.8	D+1.1	+5.6	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+3.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +7.4, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Craig Williams (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $249,495 · R $33,860

Target lists

DLCC, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Elizabeth Rhein Moro	Wendell Craig Williams	R+3.6
2022	Catherine E Spahr	Wendell Craig Williams	R+4.7
2020	Anton N Andrew	Wendell Craig Williams	R+1.5