House District 144

Forecast

Democrat

Brian Munroe

Republican

Michael J Murphy

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+13.5 (90% range D+1.9 to D+25.2)

Chance of flipping

2.9%

Tipping-point chance

5.4% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+4.4
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+11.0
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+1.8
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-1.5
= Fundamentals margin	D+14.2
District polls (1, average D+12.0, weight 32%)	-0.7
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.0
Final expected margin	D+13.5

District-level error SD 5.8 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.1 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+0.3	R+1.8	+1.4	0.45
2022 Governor	D+21.7	D+15.0	+6.7	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+7.5	D+5.0	+2.4	0.2
2020 President	D+3.3	D+1.1	+2.2	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): D+2.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +8.1, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Brian Munroe (D) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Target lists

DLCC, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Brian Munroe	Daniel J Mcphillips	D+2.7
2022	Brian Munroe	F. Todd Polinchock	D+1.6
2020	Gary P Spillane	F. Todd Polinchock	R+11.0