Senate District 16

Forecast

Democrat

Mark E Pinsley

Republican

Jarrett Charles Coleman

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+1.7 (90% range R+8.9 to D+12.2)

Chance of flipping

61.1%

Tipping-point chance

15.6% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-7.2
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+0.6
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+0.5
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	+1.5
= Fundamentals margin	R+1.4
District polls (2, average D+2.7, weight 70%)	+2.8
External ratings prior (weight 33%)	+0.3
Final expected margin	D+1.8

District-level error SD 4.9 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.4 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+9.1	R+1.8	-7.3	0.45
2022 Governor	D+7.2	D+15.0	-7.9	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+2.9	D+5.0	-7.9	0.2
2020 President	R+7.1	D+1.1	-8.2	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): R+8.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -6.2, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Jarrett Coleman (R) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Target lists

DLCC, PA_Senate_Dems, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Mark E Pinsley	Jarrett Charles Coleman	R+8.3