Senate District 34
Central PA · currently held by R (Greg Rothman)
Forecast
100%
chance William Gregory Rothman (R) wins
- Democrat
- Nathan Wood
- Republican
- William Gregory Rothman
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+20.5 (90% range R+32.9 to R+7.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.5% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -22.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+16.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.1 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+22.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+20.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+22.6 | R+1.8 | -20.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.0 | D+15.0 | -20.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.0 | D+5.0 | -23.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+23.9 | D+1.1 | -25.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+27.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -25.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Greg Rothman (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $29,361 · R $830,084
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | James H. Massey Jr. | William Gregory Rothman | R+27.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 2% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.8 points.