House District 44
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Valerie S. Gaydos)
Forecast
73%
chance Hadley B Haas (D) wins
- Democrat
- Hadley B Haas
- Republican
- Valerie S Gaydos
- Rating
- Lean D
- Expected margin
- D+4.8 (90% range R+8.0 to D+17.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 73.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 4.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -0.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+6.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.8 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+4.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+4.7 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.9 | R+1.8 | -2.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+16.3 | D+15.0 | +1.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+2.9 | D+5.0 | -2.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+3.3 | D+1.1 | -4.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+7.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +3.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Valerie S. Gaydos (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
- Target lists
- DLCC
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hadley B Haas | Valerie S. Gaydos | R+7.6 |
| 2022 | Debbie L Turici | Valerie S. Gaydos | R+9.8 |
| 2020 | Michele Knoll | Valerie Gaydos | R+9.9 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Tilt D (tilt d) | 74% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.1 points.