House District 18

Forecast

Democrat

Bryan F Allen Jr

Republican

Kathleen C Tomlinson

Rating

Lean D

Expected margin

D+5.5 (90% range R+6.2 to D+17.3)

Chance of flipping

78.2%

Tipping-point chance

4.8% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+1.0
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+7.7
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-0.7
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.2
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-1.5
= Fundamentals margin	D+2.9
District polls (2, average D+9.6, weight 28%)	+1.9
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.7
Final expected margin	D+5.5

District-level error SD 5.9 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.2 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+3.3	R+1.8	-1.6	0.45
2022 Governor	D+20.6	D+15.0	+5.5	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+8.0	D+5.0	+3.0	0.2
2020 President	D+5.2	D+1.1	+4.1	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+11.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -0.3, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Kathleen C. Tomlinson (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $162,312 · R $124,989

Target lists

DLCC, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Anand Gunvant Patel	Kathleen C Tomlinson	R+11.3
2022	Laurie Smith	Kathleen Christine Tomlinson	R+4.6
2020	Harold M Hayes	Kathleen C Tomlinson	R+4.7