Senate District 36
Central PA · currently held by D (James Andrew Malone)
Forecast
64%
chance Thomas Matthew Jones (R) wins
- Democrat
- James Andrew Malone
- Republican
- Thomas Matthew Jones
- Rating
- Tilt R
- Expected margin
- R+2.3 (90% range R+12.8 to D+8.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 63.9%
- Tipping-point chance
- 20.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -15.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+8.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.5 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | +1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+4.1 |
| District polls (2, average R+2.1, weight 70%) | +1.4 |
| External ratings prior (weight 33%) | +0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+2.2 |
District-level error SD 5.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.5 | R+1.8 | -13.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+0.3 | D+15.0 | -14.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+13.6 | D+5.0 | -18.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+16.8 | D+1.1 | -18.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- James Andrew Malone (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $738,084 · R $346,550
- Target lists
- DLCC, PA_Senate_Dems, PA_Senate_GOP, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | nan | Ryan P Aument | uncontested |
District polls
| Pollster | Sponsor | End | n | Margin | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | none (State Navigate polling fund) | 2026-10-13 | 1973 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 | 87% |
| State Navigate | none (State Navigate polling fund) | 2026-09-13 | 915 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 | 13% |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 41% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
| ballotpedia | Toss-up (Battleground district) | 50% | 0.08 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.5 points.