Senate District 26
Collar counties · currently held by D (Timothy P. Kearney)
Forecast
100%
chance Timothy Patrick Kearney (D) wins
- Democrat
- Timothy Patrick Kearney
- Republican
- Gail R Scott
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+26.7 (90% range D+14.0 to D+39.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +19.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+26.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+27.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.9 |
| Final expected margin | D+26.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+19.6 | R+1.8 | +21.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+34.6 | D+15.0 | +19.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+26.0 | D+5.0 | +20.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+23.0 | D+1.1 | +21.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): D+20.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean +16.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Timothy P. Kearney (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Timothy P Kearney | Frank Agovino | D+20.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.9 points.