Senate District 4
Collar counties · currently held by D (Art Haywood)
Forecast
100%
chance Arthur Haywood (D) wins
- Democrat
- Arthur Haywood
- Republican
- Todd Johnson
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+56.7 (90% range D+43.9 to D+69.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +67.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+74.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.6 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+75.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 33%) | -19.0 |
| Final expected margin | D+56.7 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+68.1 | R+1.8 | +69.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+77.4 | D+15.0 | +62.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+71.2 | D+5.0 | +66.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+71.3 | D+1.1 | +70.1 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Art Haywood (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $4,213 · R $9,761
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Arthur L Haywood Iii | Todd Johnson | D+70.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
| ballotpedia | Toss-up (Battleground district) | 50% | 0.08 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -19.0 points.