Senate District 20

Forecast

Democrat

Jaclyn Estelle Baker

Republican

Elisabeth J Baker

Rating

Safe R

Expected margin

R+25.2 (90% range R+37.7 to R+12.6)

Chance of flipping

0.1%

Tipping-point chance

0.1% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-27.9
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+21.2
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-2.7
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-4.0
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	+0.8
= Fundamentals margin	R+30.0
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 33%)	+4.9
Final expected margin	R+25.1

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+27.3	R+1.8	-25.6	0.45
2022 Governor	R+12.0	D+15.0	-27.0	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+19.4	D+5.0	-24.4	0.2
2020 President	R+23.6	D+1.1	-24.7	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): R+35.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -33.4, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Lisa Baker (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $1,525 · R $1,427,585

Target lists

other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Jaclyn E Baker	Elisabeth J. Baker	R+35.5