House District 140
Collar counties · currently held by D (Jim Prokopiak)
Forecast
99%
chance James George Prokopiak (D) wins
- Democrat
- James George Prokopiak
- Republican
- Michael J Gettis
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+20.5 (90% range D+7.7 to D+33.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+21.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+20.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+3.5 | R+1.8 | +5.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+27.0 | D+15.0 | +11.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+16.6 | D+5.0 | +11.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+10.5 | D+1.1 | +9.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+8.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +13.5, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jim Prokopiak (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | James Prokopiak | Candace R Cabanas | D+8.1 |
| 2022 | John T Galloway | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | John T Galloway | Jeanine Mary Mcgee | D+20.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.7 points.