House District 82

Forecast

Democrat

Paul R Takac Jr

Republican

Kirsten Lee Mcternan

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+20.3 (90% range D+7.7 to D+32.8)

Chance of flipping

0.5%

Tipping-point chance

1.7% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+7.5
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+14.1
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+2.8
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+2.3
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-0.8
= Fundamentals margin	D+21.3
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-1.0
Final expected margin	D+20.3

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+4.3	R+1.8	+6.1	0.45
2022 Governor	D+18.4	D+15.0	+3.4	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+9.3	D+5.0	+4.2	0.2
2020 President	D+6.8	D+1.1	+5.6	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): D+7.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +13.0, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Paul Takac (D) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $120,883 · R $4,230

Target lists

DLCC

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Paul R. Takac Jr.	Therese J Rohal-Hollen	D+7.6
2022	Paul R Takac Jr.	Justin V Behrens	D+12.7
2020	nan	Johnathan D Hershey	uncontested