House District 45
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Anita Astorino Kulik, not running) · open seat
Forecast
99%
chance Brittany Marie Bloam (D) wins
- Democrat
- Brittany Marie Bloam
- Republican
- James M Julius
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+20.1 (90% range D+7.1 to D+32.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.8% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +12.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+18.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +3.0 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+20.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.8 |
| Final expected margin | D+20.0 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | +5.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+27.9 | D+15.0 | +12.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+15.7 | D+5.0 | +10.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+5.4 | D+1.1 | +4.2 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+16.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +21.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Anita Astorino Kulik (D)
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $222,809 · R $3,144
- Target lists
- DLCC
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Anita Astorino Kulik | James Matthew Julius | D+16.2 |
| 2022 | Anita Astorino Kulik | Michael Pendel | D+26.7 |
| 2020 | Anita A Kulik | Daniel Brian Devito | D+23.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.8 points.