House District 121
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Eddie Day Pashinski, not running) · open seat
Forecast
94%
chance Jessica Mcclay (D) wins
- Democrat
- Jessica Mcclay
- Republican
- Michael D Harostock III
- Rating
- Likely D
- Expected margin
- D+12.4 (90% range R+0.5 to D+25.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 5.2% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +6.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+13.1 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.5 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+12.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.3 |
| Final expected margin | D+12.3 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+1.8 | R+1.8 | +0.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+19.2 | D+15.0 | +4.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+9.3 | D+5.0 | +4.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+5.4 | D+1.1 | +4.3 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+10.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +16.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Eddie Day Pashinski (D)
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $84,966 · R $42,418
- Target lists
- DLCC, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Edwin Pashinski | Donald J Disler | D+10.6 |
| 2022 | Edwin A Pashinski | Eryn Nicole Harvey | D+8.8 |
| 2020 | Edwin Pashinski | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely D (very likely d) | 96% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.3 points.