Senate District 10
Collar counties · currently held by D (Steven J. Santarsiero)
Forecast
100%
chance Steven J Santarsiero (D) wins
- Democrat
- Steven J Santarsiero
- Republican
- Gregory J Bankos Jr
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+22.5 (90% range D+9.9 to D+35.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +13.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+19.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.3 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.7 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+24.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 33%) | -2.2 |
| Final expected margin | D+22.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.2 | R+1.8 | +12.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+29.7 | D+15.0 | +14.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.1 | D+5.0 | +12.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+14.6 | D+1.1 | +13.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): D+17.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean +13.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Steven J. Santarsiero (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $720,652 · R $14,318
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Steven J Santarsiero | Matthew Mccullough | D+17.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
| ballotpedia | Toss-up (Battleground district) | 50% | 0.08 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.2 points.