House District 88
Central PA · currently held by R (Sheryl M. Delozier, not running) · open seat
Forecast
83%
chance Sara M Agerton (D) wins
- Democrat
- Sara M Agerton
- Republican
- Jeffrey H Clark
- Rating
- Likely D
- Expected margin
- D+7.3 (90% range R+5.6 to D+20.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 82.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 5.2% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +0.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+7.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.4 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+6.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.3 |
| Final expected margin | D+7.3 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+0.9 | R+1.8 | +0.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+18.5 | D+15.0 | +3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+3.0 | D+5.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+1.6 | D+1.1 | -2.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+10.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +0.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Sheryl M. Delozier (R)
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $98,882 · R $13,080
- Target lists
- DLCC, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Sara Agerton | Sheryl M Delozier | R+10.3 |
| 2022 | Sara Agerton | Sheryl M. Delozier | R+9.5 |
| 2020 | Tara Shakespeare | Sheryl M Delozier | R+16.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Tilt D (tilt d) | 86% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.3 points.