House District 142

Forecast

Democrat

Kristin Egan

Republican

Joseph F Hogan IV

Rating

Lean D

Expected margin

D+4.0 (90% range R+7.5 to D+15.5)

Chance of flipping

71.6%

Tipping-point chance

3.9% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+0.5
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+7.2
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+0.4
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.1
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-1.5
= Fundamentals margin	D+3.4
District polls (2, average D+4.0, weight 34%)	+0.2
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.2
Final expected margin	D+3.8

District-level error SD 5.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.1 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+3.4	R+1.8	-1.6	0.45
2022 Governor	D+18.7	D+15.0	+3.6	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+5.3	D+5.0	+0.2	0.2
2020 President	D+1.9	D+1.1	+0.8	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+9.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +1.4, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Joe Hogan (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $145,674 · R $117,773

Target lists

DLCC, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Anna K Payne	Joseph F Hogan Iv	R+9.6
2022	Mark Moffa	Joseph F. Hogan	R+0.2
2020	Malinda Lauren Lareau	Frank A Farry Iii	R+22.4