Senate District 30
Central PA · currently held by R (Judy Ward)
Forecast
100%
chance Judith F Ward (R) wins
- Democrat
- Sean C Steeg
- Republican
- Judith F Ward
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+40.0 (90% range R+52.6 to R+27.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -50.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+43.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.1 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+45.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +5.4 |
| Final expected margin | R+40.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+51.2 | R+1.8 | -49.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+35.4 | D+15.0 | -50.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+46.2 | D+5.0 | -51.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+51.0 | D+1.1 | -52.1 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+52.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -50.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Judy Ward (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $7,758 · R $1,610
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Carol Evon Taylor | Judith F Ward | R+52.3 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +5.4 points.