Senate District 12
Collar counties · currently held by D (Maria Collett)
Forecast
100%
chance Maria Collett (D) wins
- Democrat
- Maria Collett
- Republican
- Robert F Costello III
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+28.5 (90% range D+15.8 to D+41.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +17.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+24.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.7 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +3.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+30.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+28.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+16.1 | R+1.8 | +17.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+34.9 | D+15.0 | +19.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+21.9 | D+5.0 | +16.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+20.0 | D+1.1 | +18.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): D+19.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean +16.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Maria Collett (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $408,657 · R $2,000
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Maria Collett | Robert Davies | D+19.7 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.6 points.