Senate District 18

Forecast

Democrat

Lisa M Boscola

Republican

Scott Janney

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+23.1 (90% range D+10.5 to D+35.8)

Chance of flipping

0.2%

Tipping-point chance

0.0% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+8.8
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+15.5
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+2.8
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+1.9
= Fundamentals margin	D+22.9
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.2
Final expected margin	D+23.1

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+5.0	R+1.8	+6.8	0.45
2022 Governor	D+20.2	D+15.0	+5.1	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+12.1	D+5.0	+7.0	0.2
2020 President	D+7.8	D+1.1	+6.6	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): D+17.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean +14.3, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Lisa M. Boscola (D) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $249,038 · R $17,201

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Lisa M Boscola	John Jules Merhottein Jr	D+17.8