House District 131

Forecast

Democrat

Meriam H Sabih

Republican

V Milou Mackenzie

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+1.1 (90% range R+10.2 to D+12.6)

Chance of flipping

56.5%

Tipping-point chance

2.4% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-7.4
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+0.7
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+2.0
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.7
= Fundamentals margin	R+0.9
District polls (2, average D+4.0, weight 38%)	+1.9
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.2
Final expected margin	D+1.1

District-level error SD 5.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.0 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+10.3	R+1.8	-8.5	0.45
2022 Governor	D+5.7	D+15.0	-9.4	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+4.3	D+5.0	-9.4	0.2
2020 President	R+8.6	D+1.1	-9.7	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+14.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -3.5, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Milou Mackenzie (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $50,971 · R $19,435

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Meriam H Sabih	V. Milou Mackenzie	R+14.5
2022	Kevin Branco	V. Milou Mackenzie	R+9.8
2020	Kevin Branco	V Milou Mackenzie	R+8.5