Senate District 44
Collar counties · currently held by D (Katie J. Muth)
Forecast
99%
chance Katie J Muth (D) wins
- Democrat
- Katie J Muth
- Republican
- Melissa C Dicranian
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+19.2 (90% range D+6.5 to D+31.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+18.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+19.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.6 | R+1.8 | +12.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+24.2 | D+15.0 | +9.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+15.3 | D+5.0 | +10.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+12.6 | D+1.1 | +11.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): D+11.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean +7.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Katie J. Muth (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Katie J Muth | Jessica B Florio | D+11.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.6 points.