House District 174
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Ed Neilson) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Ed Neilson (D) wins
- Democrat
- Ed Neilson
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+18.8 (90% range D+5.9 to D+31.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 2.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+18.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+18.8 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+3.2 | R+1.8 | +4.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+31.1 | D+15.0 | +16.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.1 | D+5.0 | +12.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+11.4 | D+1.1 | +10.3 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Ed Neilson (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ed Neilson | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Edward J Neilson | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Ed Neilson | nan | uncontested |